On February 21, 2025, the financial world turned its gaze to United Co. Rusal International PJSC, a Russian aluminum giant and one of the few companies from the country still listed on a major global exchange. This week, Rusal’s stock experienced an astonishing 15-fold surge in trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with an average of 4.2 million shares changing hands daily compared to a modest 250,000 in January. Though the stock’s float is small and liquidity remains thin, this dramatic uptick signals a broader trend: investors are eagerly seeking ways to profit from what appears to be a rapid warming of relations between Russia and the United States under President Donald Trump.
The Trump Factor: A New Era for Russia-US Ties?
The resurgence of Rusal’s stock comes against a backdrop of speculation about Trump’s foreign policy intentions. Since his inauguration, Trump has hinted at a desire to recalibrate America’s relationship with Russia, a stark departure from the hardline stance adopted after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. That conflict triggered a cascade of Western sanctions, isolating Russian firms from international capital markets and leaving investors wary of touching Russian assets. Yet, Trump’s rhetoric—and the appointment of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who recently told Bloomberg the US might scale back penalties if the Kremlin negotiates—has reignited hope among speculators that a new chapter could be on the horizon.
“Trump looks hell bent on getting back in business with Russia,” observed Kamil Dimmich, a partner at North of South Capital, a London-based emerging market equity manager. While Dimmich’s firm steers clear of Russian stocks, his comment reflects a sentiment driving the current market fervor. For those willing to take the risk, Rusal has become a bellwether for this anticipated thaw. The company’s share price has soared nearly 50% this month, reaching levels not seen since April 2022, shortly after the Ukraine invasion began. This rally underscores how quickly market sentiment can shift when geopolitical winds change direction.
Rusal’s Unique Position: Not Sanctioned, Yet Shackled
Unlike many Russian firms, Rusal has avoided direct sanctions from the United States or its allies. This distinction has kept it alive on the Hong Kong exchange, a rare outpost for Russian companies in global markets. However, the absence of sanctions does not mean Rusal operates freely. The company faces a labyrinth of restrictions that complicate its business and limit its appeal to mainstream investors.
In the United States, Russian aluminum imports are subject to a punishing 200% tariff, effectively pricing Rusal’s products out of the market. The European Union, meanwhile, is steadily moving toward a complete ban on Russian metal imports, a process that could sever another vital revenue stream. Adding to these woes, the London Metal Exchange (LME), a global hub for metals trading, has stopped accepting newly produced Russian aluminum in its warehouses, further isolating Rusal from Western supply chains. Even if the US were to ease its stance—a possibility hinted at by Bessent—Trump’s recent imposition of a blanket 25% tariff on all aluminum imports, announced in February 2025, would still pose a hurdle. Across the Atlantic, neither the EU nor the UK shows any inclination to relax their own measures, leaving Rusal in a precarious limbo.
These restrictions highlight a paradox: while Rusal remains legally accessible to investors, its operational challenges and the stigma of Russian affiliation deter most mainstream fund managers. The current trading surge, then, is less a vote of confidence in Rusal’s fundamentals and more a speculative bet on geopolitical shifts. For risk-tolerant traders, the stock’s thin volume amplifies its volatility, offering the potential for outsized gains—or losses.
The Broader Russian Exodus from Global Markets
Rusal’s story is an anomaly in a landscape where most Russian companies have vanished from international exchanges. Since the 2022 invasion, a combination of Western sanctions and Kremlin countermeasures has forced firms to retreat inward. Trading outside Russia has become nearly impossible for many, with sanctions blocking access to capital and Moscow imposing its own restrictions to keep assets domestic. This isolation has reshaped the Russian corporate ecosystem, pushing companies to seek alternatives in so-called “friendly nations.”
Kazakhstan, a long-standing ally of Moscow, has emerged as a key refuge. Firms like agricultural producer Ros Agro and e-commerce player Ozon have listed depository receipts on the Astana International Exchange, a workaround that allows them to maintain some semblance of global exposure. The Kremlin’s designation of Kazakhstan as a “friendly nation” reflects its strategic importance as a bridge between Russia and the outside world. Yet, these efforts pale in comparison to the access Russian firms once enjoyed on major exchanges like London or New York, underscoring the scale of their exclusion.
Rusal’s persistence in Hong Kong, then, makes it a rare case study. It stands as a vestige of Russia’s pre-war financial presence, a symbol of resilience—or stubborn survival—in the face of overwhelming odds. For investors, it’s a high-stakes gamble: a chance to ride a wave of optimism about Russia’s reintegration into the global economy, tempered by the reality of enduring barriers.
Risks and Rewards: A Speculator’s Playground
The Rusal rally is not without its skeptics. Mainstream fund managers, scarred by the volatility and ethical questions surrounding Russian investments, remain on the sidelines. The stock’s thin trading volume, while fueling its dramatic swings, also heightens the risk of illiquidity—a trap for those unable to exit positions quickly. Moreover, the geopolitical optimism driving the surge hinges on uncertain outcomes. Trump’s willingness to negotiate with Russia may falter if the Kremlin proves intransigent, or if domestic political pressure forces a harder line. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s caveat—that penalties could escalate if talks fail—looms as a reminder of this fragility.
For Rusal itself, the path forward is fraught with challenges. Even a US sanctions rollback would not undo the EU’s import ban or the LME’s restrictions. The company’s reliance on Asian markets, particularly China, has grown, but global aluminum prices and demand remain volatile. Trump’s 25% tariff, applied universally, adds another layer of complexity, potentially offsetting any relief from a Russia-specific détente. Investors betting on Rusal are thus wagering not just on diplomacy but on the company’s ability to navigate a shifting, hostile landscape.
A Window into the Future?
The Rusal phenomenon offers a glimpse into the evolving interplay between geopolitics and markets. Three years after the Ukraine invasion shattered Russia’s economic ties with the West, the prospect of reconciliation—however tentative—has sparked a frenzy among those willing to bet on the future. For speculators, Rusal is a proxy for this broader narrative, a volatile instrument in a high-risk game. For the company, it’s a test of endurance amid a storm of restrictions and uncertainty.
As of February 21, 2025, the Rusal rally stands as a testament to the power of hope—or hubris—in driving financial decisions. Whether this surge marks the beginning of Russia’s gradual return to the global stage or a fleeting bubble destined to burst remains unclear. What is certain is that investors, undeterred by the odds, see in Rusal a chance to profit from a world in flux. In the shadow of tariffs, bans, and geopolitical gambles, the aluminum giant has become an unlikely symbol of Russia’s fraught reengagement with the West.
